Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Insight

"Our survey indicates that there is no demand for xyz services in this region. Only 12% indicated interest in accessing...er...you are smiling because?"
Here it comes, what would probably be the poorest quality evidence ever offered in any situation - 100% anecdotal, and possibly an imaginary anecdote at that.
"Boss, let me tell you a story..."
Data, take five. You aren't needed for now.
"...I was travelling through a village near Bombay..."
Which one? Pune? Lavassa?
"...We stopped for chai. And you know me, I'm always learning, looking to learn. I caught some youngster near the tapri"
Representative sample.
"and you know what happened next? Boss, I'm telling you, we think we know everything because we have all these surveys and all this data. But reality is different. We have no idea."
Let me guess, you asked him "Pune, how far?"
"...I asked him a simple question. Deceptively simple. 'Who do you like?' Simple, that is it, that was my question"
The unexpected and revelatory answer that is somehow worth more than a statistically valid survey is...drum roll...
"He looked me in the eye. He didn't flinch"
Arghh, out with it already
"Honey Singh. Not Shahrukh, Not Salman. Honey Singh, boss. Simple and straight."
Now, invalid extrapolation to all villages and then to all demographic groups...
"Indian village youth know Honey Singh, boss! Ten years back, imagine something like this happening. Villagers wouldn't even be able to reply. You know what that means?"
Followed by invalid generalised trend...
"Indian villages are changing. They are aware, more aware than you and me. Your surveys don't mean anything, they aren't capturing the ground reality"
Yes, clearly, being conducted as they were by un-aware or less aware non-fans of Honey Singh.
And finally invalid drill-down from general trend to specific point in question...
"They have aspiration, boss, they want xyz services"
Turns to the one dumb nodding person in the room who is convinced by the Honey Singh episode
"Honey Singh" and a shake of the head, "Imagine that"
Imagine, indeed.

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