Sunday, November 25, 2018

Secular trending

We have the following question from an avid reader of this blog
- Shiv Seina Member Sanjai Rawt recently issued a statement as follows - we took 17 minutes to demolish Baburi Masgid - what needed to be done was done in half hour, how long does it take the ruling party to bring the Raam Temple law? 
Any extrapolation technique that would help us answer? - a concerned citizen
Excellent question there. Several assumptions are to be made in this interesting extrapolation problem. We know about 1 lakh folks were there at the site - discounting the free-riders using a general 80-20 principle, 20k folks took 23.5 minutes (taking the average of the two estimates put up by Mr. Rawt) to accomplish the destruction i.e. 470000 man minutes or 7833 man-hours or 325 man-days.
Now armed with this information, we need an estimate for man days needed to bring a temple law as a new legislation. It is well known that breaking a strong mud and stone structure is roughly 60 times as intense as typing, printing, filing and reading i.e. 130 man hours. However, we assume here realistically that the "man" in these "man hours" are the same who performed the earlier activity 26 years back - productivity has to be discounted with age by a 10% factor year on year raising the man hours to 2000. Assuming every single one of these men are by now free 24 by 7 by 365, and let's say about 100 of them are as driven by this new mission as the one 26 years back, we have a final answer of 20 hours which is about 2.5 work days.
The second method of estimating this approximates this as monkeys trying to type out Shakespeare where the answer is known - 3.3 raised to 2 trillion days. It would be prudent to take the mean of these two estimates which leaves us with 3.3 raised to 2 trillion days.
There Mr. Rawt and citizen, we have a rough estimate. Hope this is useful for you to make progress.

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